2018 Fantasy Football Point Projections - Update 9/3/18

2018 Fantasy Football Point Projections - Update 9/3/18

msilbanalytics18

[Update 9/3/18 - Updated with roster cuts, other transactions, and injuries]

See the Google Sheet (link) below with tabs for different types of scoring models. If your scoring system is missing, please let me know!

Stay tuned to www.MSilbAnalytics.com for week-to-week updates, and follow @MSilb7 and @MSilbAnalytics on Twitter.

New for 2018:

  • Individual statistics and actual fantasy point projections rather than a derived "value" metric.
  • Statistics are driven by projected possessions dependent on the teams' schemes, and the players' histories.
  • Rookies! Approximated by the pre-season, but nevertheless, we have rookies.

See my bold predictions and next steps below the table.

2018 NFL Fantasy Stats Projections Link

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Bold Predictions (in order of boldness):

    • Sam Bradford will lead the league in passing TDs and be the top scoring fantasy QB
      • Yes, this makes me nervous too, but he's rated as the #30 QB by ESPN, so why not grab him in the last few rounds?
    • Tom Brady will be the #14 fantasy QB
      • You can't fix old.
    • Rob Gronkowski falls off, and will be the #11 fantasy TE
    • Geoff Swaim (or whoever starts at TE for the Cowboys) will be the #5 fantasy TE.
      • Whoever fills the Jason Witten void will be a huge value pick. Witten, who is now retired, was #2 in receptions for the Cowboys last year. If one player fills that void, they will be HUGE.
    • Kenyan Drake... actually good?
      • The Dolphins fan in me loves this, but Kenyan Drake projects as a top 5 RB in all leagues ahead of names like Ezekiel Elliot and Todd Gurley.
    • Larry Fitzgerald will be the top scoring fantasy WR
      • Makes for a convenient package with Bradford, ranked the #11 WR by ESPN, so spin him into a good value pick)

Next Steps:

  • Integrate Weekly Schedules
  • Pull in ESPN/Yahoo/NFL Fantasy Rankings to calculate the difference (and actually measure draft value)

 

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Michael Silberling
Michael Silberling
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